Instead of slowing, the pace got even hotter in September, rising to a new monthly sales record of 54 574 units. This bettered the previous record, set in June this year, when 50 035 units were delivered. One has to go back to June 1984 for the previous best single month sales figure of 47 942 units. Monthly new vehicle sales have not dipped below 40 000 units once this year and averaged an impressive 51 520 units for the three months that made up the third quarter of the year.

The first nine months have produced NAAMSA-reported sales of 418 034 vehicles - 26,5 per cent up on the first nine months of 2004. Extrapolating that number will put the industry on course for record sales of over 550 000 units this year. The official NAAMSA record still stands at 453 555 units, set in 1981, with the 449 603 units retailed last year having been the second highest in history.

Looking at these impressive numbers it must be said that one can only admire the bullish forecasts of the manufacturers and importers that has ensured that so many vehicles were available for delivery. . . and there are, evidently, many models with waiting lists so the market could have been even bigger!

Unfortunately, as has been stated many times before in MIND, we have the ongoing problem of Associated Motor Holdings (AMH) not revealing full details of their sales to NAAMSA. They are now a very big player in the market, with an ever growing number of brands in their stable so it is increasingly annoying for industry analysts not to have the full picture in terms of makes and models and consolidated sales figures that would make the picture even brighter.

The sales figure of 42 404 units claimed by AMH for the first nine months of this year equates to more than 10 per cent of the total market. Admittedly, they now go a bit further than before by breaking down their sales into categories, but their reluctance to be totally transparent skews the very important sales statistics for everybody but the AMH executives who have access to the full breakdown of their own figures.

The continuing high level of sales was ascribed variously to high levels of consumer and customer confidence and increased sales to car rental firms. A set of interesting figures that showed the increasing economic strength of the country was the fact that there was a 52,5 per cent growth in the number of registered personal taxpayers and 52,8 per cent growth in corporate taxpayers between 2000 and 2004.

Meanwhile the number of makes and models on offer in South Africa continues to grow, with AMH adding Malaysian-made Protons to its extensive range of imports range, while Cadillac is due to return to the General Motors line-up in the near future.

Toyota continues to lead the overall vehicle market, but it is losing market share. This is evidently partly due to production constraints at its assembly plant in Durban caused by a shortage of painting capacity while a new facility, costing R1-billion is under construction.

Toyota sold 91 116 units in the first nine months of the year - almost 10 000 more than in the corresponding period in 2004 - but market share slipped from 24,9 per cent to 21,8 per cent in the period under review. A further indication of the way the market is soaring is that Toyota sold more than 11 000 units each month from June to August, with a record 12 153 units retailed in August. But these volumes were still not enough to stem its slide in penetration!

They are still way out in front, but passenger car market leader, Volkswagen, is increasing the pace in second place, lifting its year-on-year share for the first nine months of the year from 15,7 per cent to 16,3 per cent, despite having to rely mainly on passenger car sales because they still have only a limited range of commercial vehicles.

VW's Eastern Cape neighbour, General Motors SA, is now firmly on the comeback trail and vaulted over Ford Motor Company to take third place with sales up a massive 47 per cent to 56 489 units and penetration jumping from 11,7 per cent to 13,5 per cent, while Ford's share remained fairly constant at 12,9 per cent (13 per cent a year previously). DaimlerChrysler lost slight share (10,5 per cent down to 9,5 per cent) but maintained fifth spot on the top-sellers chart.

For the rest, the big mover was Accordian Investments (Tata vehicles), which came from not being listed a year ago to taking ninth place after the first nine months of 2005, ousting Fiat/Alfa Romeo from that position.

PASSENGER CARS
As mentioned previously, Volkswagen/Audi are the pace setters in this segment, with penetration up by 0,7 per cent to 23,7 per cent on the back of a rise of 30 per cent in volume as they added even more models to their line-up. Interestingly, the Audi range is contributing increasingly to the VW group's sales total.

Toyota, which had a slight lead over VW at the end of the first nine months of 2004 has been the big loser this year, shedding 3,7 per cent in market share (23,3 per cent down to 19,5 per cent). They are obviously hoping that the introduction of the new Yaris small car in November will put them back into contention as the leader in car sales - the position they held at the end of 2004.

The next four positions in the rankings remained the same - DaimlerChrysler, Ford, General Motors and BMW - but Renault went past Nissan to take seventh position. Peugeot was ninth and Tata appeared on the list for the first time in 10th position, at the expense of Fiat.

Toyota's three-model Corolla range - sedan, RunX hatch and Verso MPV - continues to top the popularity chart with 28 710 units delivered in the first nine months of 2005, compared to 24 516 a year before. Current market share is 10,3 per cent, which is 0,8 per cent down on the 2004 figure. Chasing hard is VW's Polo range, which received a "freshening up" recently. Volume was up 29 per cent to 23 448 units as share grew slightly to 8,4 per cent.

Interestingly, in these days when there are a flood of new models at the lower end of the market it is still the "oldies", the VW CitiGolf and Toyota Tazz that occupy third and fourth spots on the "hit parade". A significant change is that Tazz, which was second at the end of September last year, has slipped to fourth as the two VW offerings moved up to second and third, with Polo jumping ahead of its long-running stablemate. As mentioned earlier, Toyota is obviously hoping its new Yaris hatch will take sales from Polo in the critical B segment.

GMSA's Corsa range holds fifth spot, with the Mercedes-Benz C-Class moving up from seventh to sixth at the expense of arch rival BMW 3-Series, which lost volume this year during its model change. Underlining the growth in the B segment is the fact that Ford's Fiesta has moved into the top 10 in eighth place, while Renault's Megane and Scenic range moves from 10th to ninth position. New VW Golf - still waiting for its new Jetta sedan stablemate - is 10th.

Looking at some of the sub-segments in the passenger car market we see that the X-Trail, currently Nissan's only segment leader, continues to set the pace in the trendy sports utility vehicle (SUV) section of the market, with 2 693 units sold in the first nine months of 2005. This level of sales puts X-Trail well ahead of the Jeep Cherokee (2 153 units sold), with the Toyota RAV4 jumping into third place on the SUV log (2 063 sales compared to 1 302 for the same nine months of 2004) on the back of aggressive marketing campaigns as it nears the end of its model life. (The new, larger and more masculine-looking RAV4 was unveiled at the Frankfurt Motor Show in September). Close behind, in fourth spot, is the Prado (1 977 units sold).

Also of interest are the strong sales of the Land Rover Discovery 3. Despite a lot of criticism about the quality and reliability of Land Rovers in general it seems the new look Disco has plenty of "street cred", as evidenced by it finding 1 254 buyers since launch earlier this year.

At the top end of the market the Mercedes-Benz S-Class still rules the roost against the controversially-styled BMW 7-Series. Even though S-Class was on run-out in South Africa (the new model was shown at the Frankfurt Show) it racked up 279 sales to the 213 of its rival from Munich.

Lexus, Toyota's luxury division, continues to struggle in South Africa, despite spectacular success on many world markets. Sales for the first three quarters of 2005 totalled 122 units, almost half the 242 units sold in the same period a year previously. Lexus is obviously depending on the renewal of its model range - expected during 2006 - to take the fight to the European luxury car makers.

Ford is another maker struggling with its top end models. Now it seems the Mondeo seems set to follow the Australian-sourced Falcon into extinction in South Africa. Mondeo volumes have slumped with only two units sold in September.

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
The overall commercial vehicle market has risen 28 per cent year-on-year, with total sales of 139 680 compared to 109 089 for the same period a year ago. The big jump has come in the medium commercial market at 43,2 per cent, while sales of heavy commercials (8 501 - 16 500 kg) rose 41,7 per cent and extra-heavies by 19,4 per cent. Bus sales jumped 24,7 per cent and light commercials, the high volume segment of the commercial vehicle market, lifted 26,3 per cent.

LIGHT COMMERCIALS
The LCV market continues to be a real battleground, with the main protagonists the local manufacturers, as there is only a smattering of imports in this segment … at present!

Toyota, with its new Hilux one-ton pick-up and Hi-Ace bus in strong demand, continues to lead the way in this segment, but it has lost market share - down 1,9 per cent year-on-year to 28 per cent. Admittedly the run-out of the previous Hilux had an effect on this loss in market share, but the latest development in this segment is the growth in the half-ton pick-up market; a segment where Toyota does not have an entrant.

GMSA, on the back of growing demand for its new half-ton Corsa and one-ton Isuzu KB ranges saw its market share jump a spectacular 6,1 per cent to 23,8 per cent to overtake both Ford (down 2,2 per cent in share) and Nissan (down 3,8 per cent).

In the first nine months of this year the half-tonners from GMSA (Corsa Utility), Ford (Bantam), Nissan (1400) and a new entry from Fiat (Strada) accounted for 32 981 units or 28 per cent of the LCV market. This compares to only 21 543 units or 23 per cent a year previously.

Interestingly the big winner in the half-tonne bakkie stakes is the Corsa Utility, which has overtaken Ford's Bantam and now sells more than double the volume of Nissan's long-running 1400. In fact, the Corsa is third on the overall list of LCV's, behind Hilux and the Isuzu KB and ahead of the Nissan Hardbody range.

A newcomer to the one-tonne market that cannot be ignored by the established manufacturers is the imported Tata Telcoline, which sold 2 486 units in the first nine months of 2005.

MEDIUM COMMERCIALS
This is the segment of the South African commercial vehicle market that is showing most growth - up 43,2 per cent to 8 928 units from 6 234 units a year previously.

There is a big shaker and mover in this segment in the market in the shape of Indian vehicle manufacturer Tata. The company has almost tripled sales from a year ago and is now firmly entrenched in second place behind Toyota's Dyna range and ahead of the DaimlerChrysler line-up of Mercedes-Benz Sprinters and Mitsubishi Canters. Tata had a year-on-year share of 20 per cent compared to Toyota's 24 per cent, but the big impact came in September when it outsold Dyna, albeit by a small margin - 258 to 240 units.

Another newcomer to the MCV market is the Russian GAZ company, which is offering an alternative to the Toyota Hi-Ace in the minibus taxi market. McCarthys is the backer of the new entrant, which has sold 91 vehicles so far this year while the country still waits for definitive announcements by the government as to where the long drawn out Taxi Recapitalization programme is going.

HEAVY COMMERCIALS
Toyota's Hino range has overtaken Nissan Diesel's offering in the heavy commercial segment (8 501 - 16 500 kg) although Toyota's 23,9 per cent share remained static. Nissan lost 3 per cent in share. Other losers were GMSA, with its Isuzu range down 2,3 per cent, and MAN (down 1,4 per cent).

Here again the threat to the establishment is Tata, which only entered this market in 2005 and already holds a 7,56 per cent share, overtaking established players such as Iveco, MAN, Volvo and Tyco Trucks.

EXTRA HEAVIES
The extra-heavy commercial vehicle market remains the domain of DaimlerChrysler with its Mercedes-Benz and Mitsubishi Fuso ranges, even growing its share by 1,1 per cent to a very dominant 32,1 per cent share in the period under review. Next best is MAN on 16,8 per cent (up 3,2 per cent), with the big losers being Volvo (down 4,4 per cent) and Scania (down 2,6 per cent).

This premium segment of the truck market is also now a "playground" for Tata, with a 2,8 per cent share in its first year, with 185 trucks sold. Their progress in this market will no doubt be watched in trepidation by the "establishment".

There are two companies set on yet another return to the South African market - Mack and Renault. Mack has been coming and going since it was brought to South Africa by Sigma Power Corporation in the 1970's, while Renault is making its third attempt to build a bridgehead in South Africa. Whether these two world players will finally make it in this market remains to be seen.

BUSES
The bus market (GVM greater than 8 501 kg) showed year-on-year growth of almost 25 per cent in the first nine months of 2005, with MAN continuing to head the field with 37,9 per cent (up 1,2 per cent), ahead of Scania (up 16,1 per cent to 26,7 per cent) and DaimlerChrysler. Tata is not in this market - yet - but there is a comparative newcomer in the form of BMC from Turkey.

Now, as we enter the last lap of 2005 the country and the motor industry waits for the official record sales that will signify both a healthy industry and a buoyant economy. It has been a long time coming and much has happened since 1981, but the wait will be worth it, as it will hopefully signal stability in the enlarged local market and increased exports of vehicles and components.