It now seems the industry pundits are being far more cautious in their market predictions this year than they were at the beginning of 2007. The general expectation is that the overall market will continue to fall, with car and LCV sales declining while medium, heavy and extra-heavy truck sales continue to grow.

One forecast is a fall of 6,2 per cent in the overall market to 634 100 units, with cars down 8 per cent to 400 000 and LCVs dropping 5,1 per cent to 194 000 units, but medium truck sales are seen to increase by 2,8 per cent to 15 600 units and heavy commercials rising 11,8 per cent to 24 500 units.

The NAAMSA forecast for 2008 is for a fall of about 4 per cent to 650 000 units for the total market. The organization predicted that 410 000 cars, 200 000 LCVs and 40 000 medium and heavy trucks and buses would be retailed this year.

Even though these forecasts of a downturn in the overall market are sobering one must remember that they are still more than double the 295 775 units sold as recently as 2002!

A "buyers' market" is likely to prevail as "special offers" are expected to abound in 2008, particularly early in the year, due to overstocking by many manufacturers and importers as a hang-over from the slowdown in sales in the last quarter of 2007.

Private leasing is expected to grow in 2008 due to the imminent launch of some aggressive marketing programmes. However, this can result in customers being taken out of the market for a long time if they opt for terms of 60-72 months.

Further ranges of cars sourced from China are scheduled to appear this year, which will put more pressure on the overstocked used car market.

Negatives that are likely to affect the South African vehicle market include the Rand weakening against the Euro, CPIX continuing to increase, along with the interest rate, while vehicle insurance rates are expected to increase sharply in the light of massive claims - many due to accidents caused by relatively inexperienced drivers.

One must also remember that demand will slow as a natural reaction to the big markets in recent years, with 2,5-million new vehicles having gone on to SA roads in the last five years (2003-2007), compared to 1,5-million in the five previous years (1999 - 2002).